Archive for the ‘Technology’ Category

Big Data presentation by Roger Hoerl

Monday, May 6th, 2013

Big Data – A Challenge for Statistical Leadership

Dr. Roger W. Hoerl
Brate-Peschel Assistant Professor at Union College

2013 Statistical Advocate of the Year Award Luncheon
Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association

Thursday 9 May 2013
Noon – 2:00 PM
Maggiano’s Little Italy, 516 North Clark Street, Chicago IL

The Wall Street Journal, New York Times and other respected publications have had major features recently on Big Data – the massive data sets which are becoming commonplace, and on the new, “sexy” data mining methods developed to analyze them. These articles, as well as much of the professional data mining and Big Data literature, may give casual users the impression that if one has a powerful enough algorithm and a lot of data, good models and good results are guaranteed at the push of a button. Obviously, this is not the case.

The leadership challenge to the statistical profession is to insure that Big Data projects are built upon a sound foundation of good modeling, and not upon the sandy foundation of hype and unstated assumptions. Further, we need to accomplish this without giving the impression that we are “against” Big Data or newer methods. I feel that the principles of statistical engineering (see Anderson-Cook and Lu 2012) can provide a path to do just this.

Three statistical engineering principles that are often overlooked or underemphasized by Big Data enthusiasts are the importance of data quality – knowing the “pedigree” of the data; the need to view statistical studies as part of the sequential process of scientific discovery – versus the “one-shot study” so common in textbooks; and the criticality of using subject-matter knowledge when developing models.

I will present examples of the severe problems that can arise in Big Data studies when these principles are not understood or ignored. In summary, I argue that the development of Big Data analytics provides significant opportunities to the profession, but at the same time requires a more proactive role from us, if we are to provide true leadership in the Big Data phenomenon.

About the Speaker: Dr. Roger W. Hoerl is the Brate-Peschel Assistant Professor of Statistics at Union College in Schenectady, NY. Previously, he led the Applied Statistics Lab at GE Global Research. While at GE, Dr. Hoerl led a team of statisticians, applied mathematicians, and computational financial analysts who worked on some of GE’s most challenging research problems, such as developing personalized medicine protocols, enhancing the reliability of aircraft engines, and management of risk for a half-trillion dollar portfolio.

Dr. Hoerl has been named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality, and has been elected to the International Statistical Institute and the International Academy for Quality.  He has received the Brumbaugh and Hunter Awards, as well as the Shewhart Medal, from the American Society for Quality, and the Founders Award and Deming Lectureship Award from the American Statistical Association.  In 2006 he received the Coolidge Fellowship from GE Global Research, honoring one scientist a year from among the four global GE Research and Development sites for lifetime technical achievement.  He used his six-month Coolidge sabbatical to study the global HIV/AIDS pandemic, spending a month traveling through Africa in 2007.

His introductory text Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance, co-authored with Ron Snee and now in its second edition, was described as “…probably the most practical basic statistics textbook that has ever been written within a business context” by the journal Technometrics.   He is coauthor of Leading Six Sigma, a Step-by-Step Guide Based on Experience With GE and Other Six Sigma Companies, and Six Sigma Beyond the Factory Floor; Deployment Strategies for Financial Services, Healthcare, and the Rest of the Real Economy, both published by Financial Time/Prentice Hall, and served as an editor of the fourth edition of Statistics, A Guide to the Unknown, published by Duxbury Press.  His book Use What You Have; Resolving the HIV/AIDS Pandemic, based on his Coolidge Sabbatical research, was published with Professor Presha Neidermeyer of West Virginia University in 2009.

About the Award: The SAY Award recognizes those whose careers are distinguished by their leadership in championing respect for data and the effective use of statistical reasoning and data analysis in business, public policy, healthcare, education and other sectors. The award was inspired by the life and work of the late Harry V. Roberts a professor of statistics and quality management at the University of Chicago and the exemplar of statistical advocacy.

Register online at: https://www.123signup.com/register?id=bdvfb

$30 for CCASA members      $35 for non-members      $10 for students

May 2013- SAY Award – The Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association.

Share

The Dark Side of Target Costing – “Help! Everything around me is breaking!”

Friday, October 26th, 2012

I believe that ‘Target costing’ is arguably one of the single greatest contributors to the poor quality of products in the marketplace today. Product innovators would like to maintain the mantra that beautifully-designed products needn’t cost more to manufacture. I argue that, in many cases, this is true, but at the same time, I also believe that a product doesn’t have much to offer in the beauty department if it consistently fails to survive the rigors of use for which it was supposedly designed–whether that’s within the few months or years of service. So what is Target Costing?

Target Costing is defined as a cost management tool for reducing the overall cost of a product over its entire life-cycle with the help of production, engineering, research and design. A target cost is the maximum cost that can be incurred on a product while still meeting the required profit margin at a particular selling price.

It’s all about reducing COST. This all-too-often involves the use of cheaper components and materials, including those that are less robust, less reliable, and more likely to fail during normal use. These are examples of “Target Costing,” which translate into shoddy products with a short working life span. You may ask, “Why is this so important?” Well, when in search of cost savings, you’d surely want to avoid the kind of mistake the following company made.

Back in the mid 1990s, a manufacturer of small kitchen electrical appliances was considering its options for reducing costs. They contracted with a supplier in the Far East to produce circuit boards for an electric grill designed for the U.S. household market.

The initial run of circuit boards met all the quality criteria and operated according to specification. However, without notifying its customer, the circuit board supplier as a means of reducing its own production cost, began using less silver and more copper in the circuit board among other cost saving initiatives. The lesser-quality circuit boards began to fail prematurely. Consumers started returning the defective electric grill to the stores, and the stores in turn returned them to the manufacturer, and ceased carrying any of the manufacturer’s products. Without the possibility of selling any additional new product, the manufacturer couldn’t absorb the cost of all the returns, and soon went out of business.

Bearing this in mind, and assuming that you really care about the reputation of your company, what do you think this means to your end-user customers?

Speaking of feeling ripped off!

A few years ago at a Target Costing presentation hosted by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the speaker offered some basic principles of Target Costing–cutting materials cost, decreasing the product life etc. An audience member neatly summed up the ludicrousness of this whole approach with the remark: “You mean Target Costing is the reason my windows in my $1M home were replaced within 3 years.”

Yes, it happens to all of us. The list of failed products is extensive, especially in the area of consumer electronics, examples of which we can probably all identify with. According to an analysis conducted by Accenture, the customer return rate for consumer electronics in the United States averaged 11 to 12 percent. It cost the U.S. electronics industry $13.8 billion to re-box, restock and resell the returned items. Based on my personal experience, these are some of the products that I’ve purchased over the last three years that failed within 3-12 months:

• Vacuum cleaners (2 times)

• Stereo systems and components (CD player, DVD player)Headphone(s)

• Desktop computer

• Printers (2 times)

• Phone systems (3 times)

• Beautifully designed Target brand lamps (2 times) and trash cans (2 times)

• Fax Machine

Now ask yourself what sense it makes to pay up to $500 for a premium vacuum cleaner, when you can purchase a 15-year old Oreck from a garage sale that costs only $20, but still works better than the three shiny brand new bag-less wonders purchased over the last three years.

Like you, I’m willing to pay extra for a product that’s designed and manufactured for a longer life, but not five or ten times the price. For instance, how much do you need to pay for a one-piece iPod docking station to help you get more out of your music collection at home?

Have you noticed all the awful reviews for music player docking stations sold through the big online retailers? Yes, to get something well-made, reliable and capable of doing what you ask of it, you’ve got to spend a bundle more than the $50 or $100 check that Aunt Agnes sent you for your birthday (to avoid total disappointment, Aunt Agnes might try looking at a check in the $500-1,000 range). But then you’d ask yourself: “But I could get an entire hifi system for that price!” Here’s a perfect example where new product developers could fulfill unmet consumer needs, in this case, by offering a reliable, high quality docking station priced 25-35% above those low quality competitor products.

So what is a product developer to do?

Start with your innovation/product strategy, and discuss the ramifications of Target Costing. Find out if it’s alienating your customers, or if there’s any ‘white space’ for high-performing innovative products (white space is that undiscovered domain of opportunity for new products and new markets).

To identify white space, try using the strategic tool, Perceptual Mapping. It is based on consumer perceptions about your products and brand, relative to your competitors. This is crucial for staking out a valuable place that can provide long-term competitive advantage for your company and its products.

Investigate online magazines and product reviews. Online retail sellers, such as Amazon, encourage customers to provide feedback (customers are evidently far from shy when sharing their faulty product experiences). Based on these reviews, where do you and your competitors fall short on performance, and where can you improve relative to your competitors?

So, when developing your product requirements document, don’t merely list target cost, but also consider things like reliability, and the mean time before failure (MTBF). Be sure to test your supplier components on an on-going basis, and to be aware of their motivations to reduce costs.

Spend time reviewing your warranty records and talk to your Quality Department and Customer Service Representatives. Analyze the type and number of complaints. Require your new product development team to spend a period of time answering the telephone help lines or processing returned goods.

Try to be different in the marketplace. Develop a value proposition for making products that last longer. Pursue and embrace your potential to gain and retain customers through good product development practices.

Endnotes

[1] Robin Cooper and Regine Slagmulder, Target Costing and Value Engineering (New York, NY: Productivity Press, 1997)

[1] Sohrab Vossoughi, “Consumer Electronics: Innovate or Die,” BusinessWeek Online (January 1, 2009): p5-5, 1p.

[1] For more on Perceptual Mapping, see Staking Out Valuable Positions,   Strategy 2 Market, Inc. (February 2007)

http://www.strategy2market.com/downloads/perceptual_mapping.html

Share

Infographic on Patent Activity

Thursday, May 24th, 2012

Patent Wars Infographic

This very interesting infographic shows patent wars and patent deals among tech companies between 2008 and 2012. Although it appears that there’s a lot of suing going going on, a closer look shows there’s more collaboration than battle in shear numbers of patents.

Motorola Mobility, Nortel, IBM, Microsoft and AOL are most active in making patent deals, suggesting an emphasis on open innovation. Apple is most active in suing, as well as being sued.

Share

MIT Media Lab invents levitating balls?

Thursday, May 17th, 2012

MIT Media Lab developed a very interesting new technology in which a user can interact with a computer application using a levitating ball. Now, can anyone think of a killer app?

http://www.fastcodesign.com/1669799/mit-creates-amazing-ui-from-levitating-orbs

Share

3D Printing Technology – Businessweek

Friday, January 13th, 2012

3D printing technology (or additive manufacturing) promises fascinating opportunities for new industries: creating human tissue for organ transplant; at-home production of toys, clothing and replacement parts; and space station production of tools and parts using designs transmitted from Earth. It has also enabled very small businesses to manufacture affordable products one-at-a-time. Companies like Shapeways provide the printing capabilities and facilitate the marketplace, allowing professional artists and designers, as well as hobbyists, to build businesses on a shoestring. This is a fascinating series of articles:

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/special-reports/ceo-guide-to-3d-printing.html

Share